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Efforts to curb Kenya's crisis debt have sparked significant political tension within the East African nation. Over the past decade, Kenya's debt has surged dramatically, rising from about $19 billion in 2015 to approximately $87 billion by July 2024. This steep rise is primarily due to a significant increase in external debt, which saw a notable jump of $12 billion in 2023 alone, reaching $42 billion. The surge in external debt, which accounts for 73 percent of the total debt increase, was further exacerbated by the sharp depreciation of the Kenyan Shilling against the US Dollar. A significant portion of this external debt comes from multilateral loans accessed from organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which saw the highest increase, adding $1.62 billion from December 2022 to December 2023.
In response to this escalating debt crisis, the Kenyan government proposed the 2024 Finance Bill, which included deeply unpopular tax increases. This proposal led to significant political unrest in June 2024, with protests that began peacefully but soon turned violent, underscoring the public's dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the nation's burgeoning debt.
The Visual
The visual representation of Kenya's public debt takes the form of a mountain range, with each mountain corresponding to a year and its height indicative of the level of debt for that year. The visual spans from 2015 to 2024, highlighting the dramatic ascent of Kenya's debt. The use of mountains is symbolic, representing the significant hurdles and challenges that the debt poses for the Kenyan government. Each peak is a stark reminder of the rising debt levels, which have climbed to unprecedented heights.
The visual reveals that Kenya's public debt is higher than it has ever been, with a particularly sharp increase observed in recent years. The data shows a consistent upward trajectory in the debt levels, with each year's "mountain" towering higher than the last. The visual effectively communicates the daunting scale of the debt issue, making it clear that the situation has become a significant hurdle for the Kenyan government.
The Data
The public debt data used in the visual is sourced from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). Yearly public debt amounts were taken from January of each year, with data after 2021 being sourced from CBK weekly bulletins. The original debt amounts were in Kenyan Shillings but have been presented in USD using July 2024 exchange rates. This reliable source ensures that the visual accurately reflects the debt levels over the specified period.
One key element not included in the visual is the differentiation between external and domestic debt. This omission is significant because the changes in external public debt have had the greatest impact on the overall debt levels since 2022. Additionally, the visual does not break down the sources of the debt, which could provide further insights into the composition and risk factors associated with Kenya's debt.
The extraordinary amounts of debt highlighted in this visual are indicative of a larger problem not just in Kenya but in many African countries. Debt has been growing significantly across the continent, with many countries experiencing debt levels that exceed 70 percent of their GDPs. Cape Verde, Mozambique, the Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ghana, Sierra Leone, and Mauritius are some of the most heavily indebted. World events, including COVID-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and soaring inflation, have increased the debt loads of African countries in recent years, forcing them to take on even more debt. Many countries are now either bankrupt or at high risk of debt distress.
Visualizing Kenya’s mounting debt problem puts into perspective the challenges and consequences the nation faces. The government's attempts to address the debt problem, coupled with the violent consequences of the pressure being put on the population, essentially put the government between a mountain and a hard place.
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